Originally Posted by
Rotorhead
I've noticed a pattern in the past. The last recession started in December of 2000 and wasn't really acknowledged until the later part of 2001, similar to this recession. Historically speaking recessions last approximately 14 months. The events of 9-11 acted as a catylist to this recession and ultimately pulled the airlines into a furlough frenzie, likely a frenzie they were hoping to avoid.
Airline continued to furlough following the end of the actual recession and recalls varied drastically by carrier. The primary difference between the furlough rounds this time and last time, the economy will likely stay in a severe recession beyond the 14 month point and prevent other career paths from spawning. You have to give credit to the airlines in one aspect, they always wait about a year into a recession before furloughing, so the timing and consequences can be anticipated. This one is going to hurt. When we do recover, if manufacturing hasn't returned to the states, the follow on recession may be the one the doom and gloomers hit right on the head.
You completely neglected the fact that scope eroded and RJ growth exploded, eliminating the mainline positions of mainline pilots while they were still out on the street.
This time around, a huge chunk of the cuts are going to be those same planes that were being delivered after 9/11. Mainline fleets will shrink too (and they already have as we all know) but unless scope changes, they won't shrink as much as they did last time.
Why did you post your thought in the Compass thread? We know you have some personal agenda against Compass, which is fine, but your comment will not be read by anyone that doesn't open a thread about an airline that isn't even hiring.