It's a numbers game
I've flown out and back to Mexico with 60 pax outbound, and 20 pax inbound (with about a handful non-rev), on 738 as well. Gate agents I've talked to they said it's been very erratic, at best, but it's a dropoff from previous years for sure.
Companies have ways to "manipulate" the numbers as they see fit to soften the blow, and I see this announcement as nothing but a precursor to another round of cuts, I just hope they'll honor our new "no-furlough" clause this time... <wink, wink>