Quote:
I sincerely hope the economy picks up and we don't have to furlough, but I'm not nearly as optimistic now as I was a few months ago. I still think the company is playing this one straight up and with a purpose.
I agree to some degree --- and that's why I started my post with the words "Theoretically speaking".Originally Posted by FXDX
I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but probably 100 of those training evolutions will canx'd on 09-03 when a bunch of guys get excessed from the 75 to the 72. Plus, a couple hundred of those training cycles have to occur eventually to man the 77 and the 75 as they come on line regardless. Your point certainly has merit, but the marginal number of training evolutions is not as big as this bid alone would indicate. Keep in mind that the training letter will take at least 18 months to 2 years, the cost will be spread out over a fairly long term. I sincerely hope the economy picks up and we don't have to furlough, but I'm not nearly as optimistic now as I was a few months ago. I still think the company is playing this one straight up and with a purpose.
...however, if a guy being flushed down from above moves from the 757 on this excess bid to a 727 on the next excess bid that means the training cycle didn't go away --- it just moved to the 727.
On this round there are 29 guys slated to go to 757 Capt --- I think they'll all go, since they'll need about 40-45 guys to train in the Capt seat over the next year in that jet due to hull growth (...my estimate).
On this round there are 177 guys slated to go to 757 FO --- I think at least 30 will go (and maybe much more over the next 12-24 months) because, once again, that is a growth acft regardless of the economy --- plus, bumping guys from the 757 to 727 doesn't save you any $$ on pay since they are the same pay rates....and over the long term you'll be holding excess 727 bids and bringing them right back to the 757 FO seat (..and that would truly be costing you an extra training cycle).
I do think there will be an excess off the 757 FO seat...and even off the 727 FO seat (...at least 35 or so) ---- but that will all be driven by two factors: how much "fat" they want to keep in the 757 FO seat --- in actuality or via a long drawn out training letter and how many folks they want to force into the back of the 727 --- unfortunately, for obvious reasons.