Originally Posted by
HSLD
At the Macro level, the age 65 rule will stagnate pilot labor growth at the majors until 2012. As attrition due to mandatory retirement requires additional bodies in the seat, furloughees will be recalled (keep in mind there are currently thousands of furloughed pilots).
That forecast would be a reasonable guess during normal economic times, and of course these are anything but. There will be continued pressure to outsource, downsize, and find the lowest unit cost in airline operations.
As many have suggested, four more years where you are might be a good call.
Heyas,
I agree with the others. Stay where you are. Nothing major is going to happen for four years. Staying in is a no-brainer. The REAL question is what you do at the end of those years.
Watch what happens. Retirement at age 65 is NOT the same as 60. There is a sharp uptick in medical disability between 60 and 65 (this is from actuarial data) that will cause the early retirement of many more pilots than pre-60. We're now entering into that period (~62ish) where this will become more apparent.
If you see airlines recalling/hiring a trickle to meet this demand, then be ready to jump in. If they DON'T hire, and just take the attrition, then I'd stay put for another tour.
FWIW, retirements at DAL have already exceeded that expected for all of 09. No hiring is planned because they are still overstaffed in some areas.
Nu