Thread: Happy Earth Day
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:41 PM   #43  
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Position: electron wrangler
Posts: 371
Default Re: Happy Earth Day

Originally Posted by jungle View Post
Then of course there is this little monkey wrench:
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM
I think your little monkey wrench is a bust.

- It's a blog entry trying to pass for science. To me, it showcases why peer reviewed science is still the gold standard.

All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA’s GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously...
- He starts out claiming the above so I went to the GISS paper and, honest to Jeebus, it starts with the following sentence:

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis.
I got the impression that Asher isn't even reading the data he's referencing.
Summary. The Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle have significant effects on year-to-year global temperature change. Because both of these natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, the unusual warmth of 2007 is all the more notable. It is apparent that there is no letup in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year mean curve in Figure 1a).

“Global warming stopped in 1998” has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the “El Nino of the century” coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend.

Strike two.

-Then there's the graphs he passes off as global temperature averages, when in fact they are global temperature anomaly graphs. While it may appear to track the temperature for the whole year from Jan 07 to Jan 08, it isn't. I believe it's tracking the average temperature of Jan 07 and comparing it to Jan 08. At any rate, I'd want confirmation from the people who provided the data.

- Finally, I can't find anywhere on the Hadley site where it talks about global cooling. However, it does say this:

Climate change goes on. Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 C warmer than they were 100 years ago and since the mid-1970s average global temperatures have increased at a rate of more than 0.15 C per decade. Yet over the last 10 years temperatures have risen more slowly, causing some to claim that global warming has stopped. Here we explain why this is not the case and explains that observed changes are entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continuing long-term warming. The evidence is very clear that global temperatures are rising and that humans are largely responsible.

This is where I packed it in. I think Asher is a hack.

Last edited by N2264J; 05-02-2009 at 05:56 PM.
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