If oil goes up to 300/bl, the US airline industry will shrink by half, permanently. I don't even worry about this scenario anymore, because even though I think the long term prognosis for airlines in the US is a shrinking trend, there's really not much point getting all tied up about it. It's totally out of the control of labor groups and airline management . . . a rational national energy policy is the prerogative of the US government. After watching for 40+ years, it's pretty clear that ain't gonna happen.

FWIW . . . I don't see any significant takers for an early out. For what the boys at the top are going to want, it will be much cheaper just to furlough and retrain. No judging here . . I'd probably feel the same way if I were the one at the top with the most to lose by an early out (great salary, seat, and schedule vs. a marginal "buyout").