The majors don't have to hire someone with 1000 PIC turbine time like they have in the past. They could lower their mins to 1000 turbine SIC and probably have a pretty good pool of pilots. Obviously they lack experience and PIC skills but it would be a lot higher standard than what other countries FO's entry level experience at the majors and they seem to be doing OK. I don't predict that they will lower their standards drastically like a commercial license with wet ink as previously suggested but they could lower it a little and still have plenty of applicants. It will be the regionals that will struggle to keep up with the turnover.

The simple fact is the airline industry is struggling for many reasons other than recession. Not many were doing well before. The cost of fuel directly affects profit and the price is not always an indication of a bad/good economy. I know this is like beating a dead horse, but the age 65 retirement affected hiring a lot. So we have about 4 more years before the old guys hang their hats and the majors will need to replace them. Before the age was bumped back 5 years, we were on the verge of a pilot shortage. It was obvious at the regional level when 250 hour wonders were flying big shiny jets.

As far as the answer to the original post. Depending on which 121 carrier you were furloughed from would indicate when you will go back. I think Express Jet is going to take a LONG time to rebound because they shut down their branded flying and would have to get a lot of flying or have a lot of pilots leave before they recall their furloughed pilots. Mesa has a high turnover so when the majors start hiring, they will rebound fast if they don't lose too much flying.