Originally Posted by Boomer

The problem is, those established regionals become too costly, thus the stagnation you speak of. In swoops the upstart regional, underbids the established regional, and gets awarded flying from mainline.

The upstart regional fleet doubles in size faster than they can hire pilots, but pay is not a problem because "who cares what the FO makes, I'll be Captain in a year!"

As soon as the 600-hour wunder-FO has ATP mins he's off to the left seat without ever deicing or painting an imbedded line of weather. And who does this newly-minted, 1500-hour Captain have to watch his back? Another 600-hour wunderkind just off IOE and ready to serve his year in the right seat, hoping the captain gets his 1000 TurbinePIC and moves on so he can have his shot too.

In theory, when things turn around these guys may go to the majors in droves, having seen icing a half dozen times and still knowing very little other that they kept each other alive for two years.

On the other hand, the 7,000 hour FO from the stagnant regional won't get an interview because he lacks 1000TPIC and leaves the airlines to fly for NetJets or whatever, taking his 8 years of airline experience with him.

What I found interesting in the Colgan transcript is the FO stating that she didn't want to upgrade until she had flown a winter in the right seat, so she would have experience in all types of weather. Her new-hire chums wanted to upgrade now, but she wasn't comfortable with that.

She sounded like she wanted to expand her envelope at a comfortable pace, but wound up on the ground anyway. I wonder if her "take it slow, learn a while" mindset is the norm at many regionals these days.

I'd take a hard look at how much "overlap" really exists between experienced CAs and new FOs at some of the regionals who have enjoyed explosive growth in recent years.