I would say things are bleak, but I think there are two important things to consider. First, airlines entered this downturn with lean staffing. Even though there was a hiring boom in 2007, many weren't overstaffed when furloughs began. With few exceptions, individual company furloughs haven't been too high.

Second, the age 65 retirements may come a little sooner than we expect. While many may work past 60, I have heard from an AA pilot that most in his group don't expect to work past 62 or 63. That might bring back some industry wide hiring next year, or it may not.

I'm not an optimist by nature, but things could turn around sooner than we think. Still, I conceded it's pretty gloomey out there. Better than it was in January to March though.