Originally Posted by
sqwkvfr
You missed my point completely. My point is that in the future, there will not be enough GA work (piston twin gigs, instructing, air ambulance, box hauling, charter, whatever) to adequately feed 121 ops with a sufficient number of pilots with ATP mins. This is not a sustainable system...hell, even during the hiring boom of the last few years, that wouldn't have worked....there just weren't enough pilots with ATP mins to fill entry level spots at regional carriers. That's why there were so many people getting hired with 250 hours and sometimes even less.
Changes to certification will take place, you're correct about that, but it won't be in the direction that you'd like it to be.....I think the term "frozen ATPL" will become part of the American flight training vocabulary within the next ten years.
I think that the fATPL is much more likely to come along than an impossible requirement for ATP mins.
We shall see, but I would be glad if there are less qualified individuals coming to work for my company, and all others for that matter. Less supply would certainly drive demand, and the pay issue would almost resolve itself. In order for that to happen there has to be a better system of qualifying pilots, starting with the elimination of pilot factories. We'll see what happens, either way it won't happen soon, it will take a few years to implement any changes.