Depends on whether management figures out that ALPA will not cave in.
I understand the confusion. I can't figure out if ALPA will outsource these. They always say no, but that's not what they do.
As for Lufthansia, just read this (if it translates right):
Lufthansa cockpit Careers
and
Wolfgang Mayrhuber, chairman of the executive board of Europe's third-largest airline, tried to pressure the Vereinigung Cockpit (VC) pilot union by publicly threatening to outsource more flying to partner airlines if the union did not agree to significant cost cuts. Mayrhuber effectively attacked a 1992 agreement between the airline and its flight crews that limited outsourcing in return for concessions that, at the time, helped save the airline from bankruptcy.
"I will only create profitable jobs," Mayrhuber told AW&ST recently. "Wages and work rules will have to come down to market level," he says. Mayrhuber points out that he refuses to favor internal growth over outsourcing regardless of the outcome of negotiations. "You can't agree on something you can't promise," he adds.
"[We find] the Mayrhuber statements completely incomprehensible," a VC spokesman replies. He says negotiations with Lufthansa on productivity improvements and a wage freeze are well advanced, but that details remain to be clarified. The current Lufthansa wage agreement includes Lufthansa mainline, regional subsidiary CityLine and leisure carrier Condor Flugdienst. VC wants to include low-fare unit Germanwings in a new agreement. If Lufthansa relinquishes routes to Germanwings--as has already happened in some cases--VC wants Lufthansa pilots to fly the aircraft--albeit at Germanwings rates. Germanwings is a fully owned subsidiary of Eurowings AG in which Lufthansa holds 49%.
Apparently they have their own problems with outsourcing and things are really ugly there.