Originally Posted by
acl65pilot
When I saw the AF447 rudder I noticed one thing. The Forward Attach Point (nut) was still on the rudder and the aft one was missing.
I am not a accident investigator but studied it extensively in college, and what I deduce is this:
The forward attach point would have sheared on impact with the water if if was attached to the fuselage. Because the back one was missing I think it is reasonable to suspect large rudder or vertical stabilizer oscillations that caused the Afterword Attach Point to shear.
I concluded the same thing and noticed that the photographs indicate a good
possibility that the vertical stabilizer/rudder actually sheared off in flight. If that did occur, then obviously the remaining fuselage would likely break up in flight. It makes sense that several of the bodies recovered to date had their clothing torn off, hurling through the atmosphere, especially considering the number of broken bones. Remember these folks
didn't drown according to preliminary reports.
IF this scenario plays out and the final ruling is that this was the root cause of the accident, it will be interesting to see whether the NTSB actually has the guts to address this issue head on. I know the political and economic ramifications are
huge but then again, so is the potential loss of life with operating aircraft with a known design flaw. Remember, if this scenario plays out, it will be the
second major accident in which a vertical stabilizer/rudder structural failure of an Airbus aircraft was the cause.
Y'All be careful out there
...yes, I know. We don't jump to conclusions and wait patiently until the accident investigators have completed their jobs.
G'Day
