Originally Posted by
Counselor
I don't know about that. I would bet that any growth in the U.S. airline industry comes at the regional level, as regionals swallow more and more of the domestic system.
That would be the correct assessment.
Overall, the domestic market will contract just as the International market is also doing. I would expect the regional level to grow fairly modestly while the domestic mainline level to shrink substantially.
The overwhelming remainder of the 50-seat or less RJ's will eventually be replaced by single class 70-seaters or 85 seat aircraft configured to perhaps 75-80 in mixed class. That will be the growth/replacement of the domestic market over the next 5-7 years. Wheras the tired old 737-300's and S-80's will be retired. The smallest aircraft for mailine fleets will be the 737-800 or A-320 which is up around 145 seats.
That's where we are at, that's where we are going and unfortunately nothing can stop that. Over the next few years there will be some labor heartburn over this, but ultimately the reality that is already here will be realized.