Originally Posted by Whacker77

I know it's a tough environment for everyone right now, but we shouldn't jump to too many conclusions about what will happen in the next few years. We've just gone through the sharpest downturn since the 1930's. That's bound to leave a mark and it has, but what has happened doesn't always foreshadow what will happen.

Most of the forecasts we are seeing now basically assume things won't get much better. In other words, the economy will be static for years to come. That's possible, but how often do things turn out just as they were planned? Not often, I think.

The most negative economist over the past few years was Nouriel Roubini. He earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" because he was so bearish. In late February, when things were at their worst, he predicted a recession that would last 36 months. In other words, the recession would not end until October 2010.

Now, Roubini is singing a different tune. Rather than say the recession continues, he says the US faces the risk of a double dip recession. In other words, even he now believes the economy will grow from this point, but it could slip back into recession if certain factors occur.

I know I took a while to get to my point, but here it is. The economy will drive what happens to staffing levels at airlines. Because the economy is so dynamic and changable, forecasts made today based on models that don't always work well should only be used as a rough guide, if that. Economic forecasts made in October 2007 certainly didn't capture the pain of the last two years so those that predict future pain could be just as wrong.

The airline industry is changing, but when the economy turns so will leisure travel. It's just that simple. People are not going to change their habits. How long did it take for people to start flying after 9/11? In the end, almost everything reverts back to the mean. Travel will be the same.