Originally Posted by
FlyASA
What is the current attrition rate? I would guess it's near 0.
Q1 2011 seems realistic to me for the following reasons:
- Scott said not to expect any changes till summer 2010 in that email about block hours. If they can make it through this summer with the record number of block hours with out recalls there is no reason why they can't do it next summer, especially with 20 CRJs (net negative 10 aircraft) leaving the fleet.
- PBS could slash our staffing needs by 10% or more if it is voted in
- If the rumors of another 2-1 swap are true (don't know) we'll have a net loss of 20 aircraft (when added with the other 2-1 swap) and at roughly 5.5 crews per aircraft, that's over 220 pilots we won't need anymore.
There is also the Skywest wild card, what's to stop them from taking more ASA flying to avoid furloughs on their side?
I don't know if Skywest can just "take" ASA flying. Still the matter of contracts and certificates.
But I don't know. There is always attrition no matter what, it is just a matter of how many. My seniority number went up about 24 people on the last update in Jan. So I am very curious on what the new number is. Also if you look at that most recent e-mail, we have close to 100 pilots on LOA for med or mil. So out of 1600 pilots that are not furloughed there is still another 100 not flying. That makes 1500 pilots working this summer and fall schedule. My opinion will change IF another 2-1 deal is worked out. That I think will be the nail in the coffin for a 2010 recall. But I have no clue where these planes will come from because DCI 700/900 are maxed out. I do AGREE with you the PBS may skrew everything up and that to me is the biggest wild card. If voted in that is just as bad if not worst than a 2-1 deal. But.... if the FAA changes these duty time rules... well that means those 16 hr days now need 2 pilots to do. That can be a blessing for ALL furloughed pilots because staffing numbers will have to change. I think there is too many unknowns right now for anyone, including myself, to make a good prediction. The chips can fall in any direction right now.