Originally Posted by John Pennekamp

From what I'm hearing the situation is dynamic. The Mesa ruling (they won their lawsuit against Delta) kind of threw a monkey wrench into the mix. I keep hearing that Delta still plans to dump Mesa, but now they need to buy out their contract. This cash infusion will keep them going through the fall. This means they probably won't go bankrupt this fall, and may not lose their UAL flying, as many suspected. I also keep hearing that there is another 2 for 1 deal coming our way, which I suspect is for the -900s Mesa is operating for Delta.

Nevertheless, I'm fairly sure that the remaining 60 unprotected pilots will be furloughed. There may also be some captain downgrades, if we don't pick up more flying. ExpressJet is finishing their 3 month UAL contract in Sep. and they may or may not get the flying after that. I've heard we're getting it, but everything in this industry is subject to change at a whim.

Someone mentioned Delta deliberately torpedoing ASA to make us a more attractive buyout, and the possibility of a merger/staple. From what I've heard coming out of ALPA and DALPA that's actually not as far fetched as it seems.

I want to point out that a lot of the doom & gloom coming out of SH is the company posturing for PBS negotiations. They want to paint a picture of the company being desperate and that if we don't give them PBS on their terms, bad things will happen. This is why I think they'll furlough the last 60, as a show, or in union jargon "taking them hostage". Then we'll agree to PBS and suddenly all of this flying (that I mentioned above) will come our way. Conversely, if we don't accept PBS, and some of the flying doesn't come our way (for reasons I mentioned above) they will say it's because we didn't go with PBS. I know this, because it's the same tired play book ASA has used for the last decade.

I guess the bottom line, is just hold on and watch. Big things are going to happen this fall, whether they're good or not. The pieces are starting to fall into place, and we'll have a good picture soon. Personally, I think the doom & gloom are B.S. and it will work out in our favor.