I'm sure this topic has been hashed over pretty well, but let me add my two cents. I wouldn't get too carried away making career decisions based on today's projection of the future economic growth. If things were set in stone, we would all be flying based on the projections made in November 2007.

The one fault economic planning has is it is static. We assume all of the assumptions we make today will pan out. As we know, that never happens. The economy, like life, is dynamic. Events we cannot foresee today will play a huge role in airline hiring in the years to come. On September 10, 2001, hiring was to take place for years and years and no one ever considered the possibility of a terrorist attack.

I know most people here prefer the gloom and doom scenario, but what if modest growth returns to the economy by the end of the year. Most, but not all, economists are predicting something similar to that. That would certainly alter hiring. What if many senior pilots decide to end their careers at 62 or 63? That would certainly alter hiring.

Personally, I wouldn't expect too much movement until the first quarter of 2010. Still, there are a few encouraging signs out there. First, merger and aquisistion activity is happening (Republic). Second, Air Tran recalled all of its furloughed pilots. Third, oil, although more expensive than in January, is 50% cheaper than just one year ago. Each of these data points leads me to believe the bottom is in and things will be or already have turned up, however slight that may be.

It's always darkest before dawn and then the sun comes up. I think we reached that point in late February and early March. The morning overcast remains though.