Originally Posted by
Burn Notice
IF, and I sincerely hope this does NOT happen, this were to happen, who would the bidders be? More importantly who would be the Ron Allen of the group? Grossly overbidding for minor assets while completely ignoring assets that would add value to the airline. Who would play Crandall and Wolfe, devilishly inflating bidding prices? History is always doomed to repeat itself. But, once again, I play what if with the hope this never happens. There are too many good people who Tilton has screwed over at United. I wish them the best so we can get back to good old fashioned gentleman's rivalry.
Burn Notice
The bidders would be so numerous you couldn't count them. The liquidation fire sale would bring in huge amounts of money, which is another reason it's actually in some ways to some people quite attractive. UAL is in a hopeless financial tailspin and the only way they wont hit the ground now is a fantastic recovery and pull out by next summer.
For them, the wind has to shift 180 degrees and blow strong. A partial shift in direction or a complete shift with only a light breeze wont do it. I think that is why the analysts are all starting to talk like one now........it's undenyable.
The outside chance is a white night willing to grab the stick, kick opposite rudder and risk their own survival in an attempt to pull out....... of course right now, their isn't anyone else in the cockpit.
The thought that they are "too big to fail" has some merit, but what is "faliure" ?
This industry is extremely unhealthy and UAL's financials wont be saved by simply buying more time. That's throwing good money after bad and I think the taxpayers are fed up with this. Additionally, O adding to a staggering defecit by throwing more cash in this direction would probably hurt him more then allowing the marketplace to correct its problems. Most of the carmakers could recover from BK and re-emerge stronger, but UAL is so screwed up, it's a completely different animal. Like the car makers UAL would have to agree to pay most of any bailout money back and by next summer barring a miricle, they likely wont be able to pay their employees or even AFFORD BK. O wouldn't be blamed for UAL's collapse and he could easily dodge that bullet backyard or not. The thought it is the governements job to bail out every badly run corporation simply because jobs are lost is one of the more dysfunctional byproducts of this horribly managed U.S. economy.
I think it quite possible UAL could survive as perhaps a 65% smaller carrier, perdominantly International and Far East, provided the deal involved new buyes for that segment willing to keep the UAL name which DOES have value.