Assuming this data is correct on the forced retire list by year per airline (the post above) and the airline's number of furloughs (I know, I know: Thou Shalt Never Assume) - take a look at how long, based on forced retirements, it would take to clear the furlough list for the respective airlines. If everything remains completely static (or, better yet, no further furloughs, another legacy going Ch. 7, etc.). About 2016 for most!

Here's another one and if anyone else has hard numbers, please offer them... I was on a UAL flight and talked to one of the heads of staffing for UAL who was running a team responsible for ramping up UAL hiring (this was about January of 2007 give or take a few months). They (UAL) were going through the furlough list completely a 2nd time making final offers to pilots to return. He said they were lucky to get 1 out 3 to even pick up the phone to talk. A few months later, they were hiring. Keep in mind how long some of these pilots were out of work by that point. If anyone has the furlough number (or a rough approximate) as of Jan 07, this can give a better estimate of just how many (few?) actually returned. More importantly, it may take less time to offset furloughs with forced retirements (that is, if my swag-math even remotely resembles reality). We can apply this to AA; how many AA furloughes are TWA guys stapled to the bottom of the seniority list from 2001-ish?

Great analysis? Not really, and probably full of holes but just something to think about...