I added up the numbers of all the retirements given from each airline in 2017 and I came up with only 1110 possible new hires that year. Assuming the majors don't shrink by then it still is not a very optimistic number.

Every year there are between 8500 and 10,000 new commercial pilots minted in the country. Over the last decade we have lost more major airline jobs then we have gained. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough from 9-11.

Every year that goes by there is a growing backlog of 8500 to 10,000 dreams in suspended animation. This all translates into a statistical long shot. Tens of thousands and possibly more than one hundred thousand pilots hoping to be one of the 1000 or so pilots to get hired each year during the "boom".

Everyone thinks that they will be one of the lucky 1000. Retired military pilots alone might be enough to fill the vacancies.

Skyhigh