Originally Posted by
SkyHigh
I added up the numbers of all the retirements given from each airline in 2017 and I came up with only 1110 possible new hires that year. Assuming the majors don't shrink by then it still is not a very optimistic number.
Every year there are between 8500 and 10,000 new commercial pilots minted in the country. Over the last decade we have lost more major airline jobs then we have gained. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough from 9-11.
Every year that goes by there is a growing backlog of 8500 to 10,000 dreams in suspended animation. This all translates into a statistical long shot. Tens of thousands and possibly hundreds of thousands of pilots hoping to be one of the 1000 or so pilots to get hired each year during the "boom".
Everyone thinks that they will be one of the lucky 1000. Retired military pilots alone might be enough to fill the vacancies.
Skyhigh
You assume EVERYONE will go or can make it till 65. Fact is most wont or dont want to fly till 65. Just like a pilot to expect the worst i suppose
Also the current number of people getting commercial multi certificates now is much lower than in previous years and will likely keep going down.
The airlines will grow at some point, they've been cut so much that it leaves alot of room to grow. Combine that with expected aircraft travel increasing and expected to almost double in the coming years, the flying will come back and when it does, those with the foresight to get on at the front will be sitting nicely.
Alot of pilots have been beaten up in the past few years and forced this idea that it will only get worse but the potential is there for those that take the emotion out of it and look at the opportunities that will be available.
Risk vs Reward fellas, If your going when everyone else is doing the same you've already missed the boat. The key is to catch it before everyone else
Good luck to all