It would appear that a lot of the full fare, refundable, change-able tickets that are sold and the seat assignment is not chosen, are a different animal. I have seen oversold flights to a city (in "crisis" like hurricane damage or near a military event as examples). Yet when it gets close to departure time, there are an unbelievable number of revenue no-shows. A ton of non-revs get on a flight that looked impossible.

The next flight that by the numbers looks possible has a ton more HK's show up than the (over) sell numbers would have indicated were even possible. A lot of government and Red Cross travel is that flexible type fare ticket. I had a kid in both Katrina & Ike area and this happened alot and some of those flexible ticket rev passengers are there with me after departure but they aren't listed as standbys .

Of course when another airline's flight cancels - all those passengers will suddenly show up. I spent a day and a half in Detroit in mid Sept waiting for flights that looked wide open. I can't figure out what code is currently used to designate those kinds of passengers.

It's been a crap-shoot since spring. Go early, stay late, bring a book and cash, and never-ever leave the gate area until the plane backs away.