Originally Posted by
dondk
I agree with some of your points. I am not sure that every regional pilot will have that opportunity at a major of choice. Mergers don't help, nor do companies going belly up or gasp getting absorbed by a regional (okay, national). 5 years is long enough for at least a few more of these events to happen.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
But in this down economy Lift is almost equal to Demand. Yes lift more than likely will fall another 10% or so but it can't go much further (industry wide we’re running at over 80% capacity). If UAL or someone else goes under their lift will have to be completely replace so I’m sure O will work out some purchase agreement between one of the other healthier carriers much like Wells Fargo and Wachovia. I’m not a fan of O but he will not let a company the size of UAL go under.