Yup, lots of retirements in the future, but lots of new pilots being created every year to compete for those jobs......

Original airmen certificates issued by Category:

2000 (for reference)
7,715 new ATP's
11,213 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

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2005
4,750 new ATP's
8,834 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2006
4,748 new ATP's
8,687 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2007
5,918 new ATP's
9,318 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2008
5,204 new ATP's
10,595 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

Take a look at the numbers- there's a huge decrease in demand for professional pilots now and the next few to several years, yet the "system" is still creating more pilots than what was needed when demand was "normal." And remember we had an oversupply of pilots in the business BEFORE the downturn.

Note that this isn't 15,000-ish new ATP's AND Commercial Pilot Certificates because you need a Commercial Pilot Certificate to get an ATP, but we're still creating alot (thousands) of new pilots EVERY
YEAR who won't be able to find employment for years......that's a huge backlog if they decide to stay in the business and if the industry starts hiring. Plus you have to consider the military pilots who will get out...if there is a "hiring boom" in the future, they'll start getting out of the miliary earlier just like they did in the mid 90's and early 00's instead of staying in for their 20. Then you have the guys that did get their 20 in and want to leave. Plus you have to consider all the guys on the street from furloughs. Yeah, they might be doing something else now, but maybe they're just working those jobs waiting for a better opportunity in the future. Pilot certificates and flight hours don't expire. If there's a "hiring boom" in the future, that means a pilot that has flown in a few years could get hired by a desperate regional airline or flight instruct for a few months to "get current" then get hired.

As long as regional airlines have a fat supply of pilots, they can offer low wages because if one pilot doesn't take the job, 10 other guys will. I don't see much hope for the future unless we see some significant ASM growth in the industry. Hopefully people entering the profession nowadays are getting a degree in something else while they wait out whatever "hiring boom" that is supposedly going to be happening in the future. I wouldn't hold my breath.