Originally Posted by
Superpilot92
The numbers are coming down, i'm willing to bet 2009 numbers will be sharply lower due to the regionals not upgrading in waves, credit market drying up and school loans being harder to come by. Also those who received ATPs in the past few years have likely been working on ratings for years and those numbers also show a big rise in initial ATPs because over the past few years the Regionals where upgrading 1000's of pilots since 2001 thus attributing to alot of the new ATP certificates.
Flight schools are having a much harder time attracting pilots now and that statistic will be lagged. we'll see
I'm not that optimistic. We're still creating 1000's upon 1000's of commercial pilots that will have no place to go. Even if the number was cut in half (doubtful- didn't happen during the last downturn), we're just adding to a glut of pilots that already have no place to go. It will take YEARS to work through all of these people. I feel bad for guys who are going through flight training now. They are absolutely screwed unless they have a non-aviation degree.
Even if they do find a job, airline management is going to use this glut of pilots to drive down wages even further as pilots are going to be willing to do anything to fly a big, shiny jet. If management was smart, they'd start "pay to play" all over again, ala Atlantic Coast and ASA. There would be no shortage of applicants.