Originally Posted by
slowplay
Why don't you take us through the scenario of where either Delta or NWA pilots would have been absent the merger.
A very valid point. We would definitely have been hurting if our international growth was reversed. NW was already hurting from the ANC issue, and the DC-9 to Compass transfer problem. That was well established in the SLI hearings, Stevens' memory loss aside. The 3.5-year gap to Age 65 mandatory retirements would have been an ugly period, before the N guys enjoyed five years or so of disproportionately high retirements. We would have probably seen lower lows, but maybe lower highs too, as fewer retired.
Now, the switch to the JCBA workrules and staffing requirements helps the combined group, which is good. And I agree: the merger helps both groups a lot.
Of course, you can't deny ACL the fact that we were starting from a better position. People here who are mid-seniority international WB linholders couldn't hold a WB position anywhere at NW, for an equivalent relative seniority. We were starting from better positions, without an existing surplus, and could have held on longer in the displacement game for an equivalent % reduction in flying. The NW guys, once retirments kicked in, would regain what they had lost faster, but would still move back into lower-paying equipement. A more difficult period until 2013, a steeper rebound starting in 2013, and perhaps lower highs to reach depending on how the cargo and DC-9 issues were addressed. At some point between 2013-2022, the NW guys possibly would have peaked higher through sheer retirements, until we would again see more beyond 2023. And that's assuming all things remained roughly constant, and followed existing trends. But when do they ever?
Bottom line: everyone (hopefully) benefits from the merger. Let's move forward.