Originally Posted by
Bad-Andy
Crap. I am now convinced that the end is near... I find myself agreeing with eaglefly... Seriously, though, I think you're right -- why enter into a mess of a merger (especially with the new merger laws in place) when you can buy pieces. It makes no sense from a management perspective... Douggie isn't stupid (he may be an impulsive fool, but he isn't dumb). If he allows the airline to continue to fall apart (not just the pilots, but the F/A's are having issues, the customer complaints are high, etc), he won't even have to take the hammer to US. It will break apart itself... He stands to make a lot of money selling it off in pieces (a lot more than a sale to a single buyer).
As for bankruptcy by winter or spring, where do you guys come up with this stuff? Do you just pick arbitrary numbers and dates? There is nothing that points to impending doom. At the present rate they're losing money, US can last another 18-24 months before even being in danger of liquidation (note, I said at present rate of loss). Most non-airline analysts are predicting the beginning of an economic recovery by this Fall or next Spring. That would stretch out US (and UAL for that matter)'s life for a while longer.
And, as for the guys that think Parker will take US in Ch 11 just to get a pilot contract, give me a break. The dangers (and downsides) to a BK filing are pretty severe (as in will they even emerge, what effect will there be on current shareholders -- of which he is one, etc...). If US goes into BK, it will be a while from now and it will be because they are facing destruction -- not just for a contract...
As for whoever asked about the post-merger new hires, yes there are a few of us (although finally, none are left on property). And, I can tell you from my own opinions and those of my buddies hired/ furloughed me, most of us are pretty neutral. As a whole we supported ALPA in the vote (east or west), didn't listen to most of the ramblings in the cockpit, support the Nic (if for no other reason that final and binding should mean final and binding...), but we also understand where the East guys are coming from. They are angry and beaten down. They are frustrated at how they are treated and how their careers have turned out. But, being sympathetic does not we agree with them in trampling the West guys to try and make up for things. I would say that we are just neutral in the whole thing. (Besides, who knows if we will ever get recalled...)
Agree with eaglefly ?
Don't tell your friends this..........that would be very bad.
In all seriousness too, I think that anyone out there whose belief is that Parker's plan is to just muddle along for the next 18-24 months in the hope that "things will work out, because the economy will surely improve and then U will be fine" is a tad nieve. Even if the economy improves, U can't survive with the status quo remaining as 2 seperate carriers in perpituity. Even if he can synregize as one very soon, U is still on the ropes.
The industry seems as though it's waiting and searching for a relief valve in the form of one carrier that will liquidate and provide the catalyst that it needs to right-size itself to a healthier size. A liquidation that involves selling assets and shrinking might be enough. It would still mean MANY more pilots of that carrier (perhaps the bottom 40-50%) would be left without a chair and that's not good, but necessary for the industry as a whole. The lack of cohesion COULD put U ahead of UAL in the future. Remember the winter revenue will drop (as usual) significantly and early next spring someone is likely ripe to pop. Many of the carriers have HUGE debt issues maturing early next year as well.......not a good combination. Parker needs to either take this division head on if he plans to save U or just wait until he has the excuse (and financials) to open the bidding.
Again it seems a race (at least NOW) between UAL and U. USAPA's legacy may be that they commited professional seppuku in the name of seniority..........lets hope they can live with that legacy should their actions push U over the brink.