Originally Posted by Whacker77

In my previous comment, I mentioned the 1500 hour requirement could cause a pilot shortage for regional carriers. I was taken to task, but allow me to elaborate on my point just a bit more. Most won't find it persuasive, but here goes.

Eventually, the problems the age 60 rule was to create will happen with the age 65 rule. Now some will point to furloughs and say there are plenty of pilots ready for that moment, but that assumes no pilots will be recalled between now and the end of the world.

If you believe the economy will recover and natural attrition at the majors takes place, furloughed pilots are going to be recalled. Holes will have to be filled. As that occurs and some regional pilots move on to major carriers, spots are going to open at regional carriers.

At some point, simply recalling furloughed pilots won't be enough for regional carriers. For a time, there will probably be plenty of 1500 hour plus pilots available, but the well is going to run dry. Then what? Does the airline industry purposefully remain smaller due to a pilot shortage than the market desires?

In the relatively near future, and probably sooner than many think, airlines are going to find themselves in the hole they operated under in 2007. As bad as the economy has been, we're still at economic levels seen in the late 1990's. That was the supposed golden age for airlines, right? In fact, some believe this recession still won't be as bad as the one in 1982-1983.

After that long winded speech, here's my point. Fewer and fewer people are learning to fly and earn commerical liscences, or at least that has been the case. If the number of pilots is decreasing and the airlines industry begins to grow again, where are the pilots with 1500 hours going to come from then?

I'm not arguing against 1500 hours and an ATP. I'm just wondering what the unintended consequences could be. Some may prefer 2500 or even 3000 as was the norm in the 1980's, but how much larger in is the industry now as compared to then?