Originally Posted by
NWA320pilot
The same places they were coming from when the mins were higher, CFI, freight, military, etc. While the number of pilots being licensed has dropped it nowhere near outpaces the number of jobs available. Airlines are contracting and I think you will see this trend continue even past the point of profitability. If the FAA requires at least an ATP there will be plenty of licensed pilots to fill empty slots.
I disagree with your statement on contraction. Every projection made today by airlines is based on a depression scenario. I think they're just as faulty as the rosy ones made in late 2007. I think you'll see a larger industry in less than five years. That's a debate for another day though.
As for your second point, I don't think there will be plenty of liscenced pilots to fill the ATP 1500 hour rule. Like I said, I'm not arguing against it at all. I have 1200 hours, but the passage of the law would probably cause me to look for another career path. Another three hundred hours of CFI time and the time it will take for hiring to restart is likely too long for me. I think others in my position would harbor the same thoughts. Just one man's view, though.