The fortunes of the airlines go up and down instep with the economy. HOWEVER, over the last 30 years the sum of all downs has been significantly greater than the sum of all ups for pilot pay. There has been NOTHING to break this trend for over 3 decades. He is calling the bottom of a 30+ year established trend line AND thinking it's reversing, when in fact there is no indication that is happening. They have a name for him in the investment community. It's called a "pumper" that ends up being a "bag holder".