Originally Posted by
Lambourne
This is stated in a factual matter. Now can you break out the numbers from the financial releases to prove your assertion of the fate of UAL? You are talking about a 6-9 month timeline in an airline life cycle where nothing changes. Perhaps in your vacuum world nothing changes. However, things are changing on a daily basis and the airlines are making adjustments all time.
Take for instance the stance that UAL is a doomed player in the market. Yet look at this link.
9 Stocks Shaking the Market
Clearly most of the airline industry is a dynamic environment, even a student pilot knows this. However, you're not addressing my post. There are many if's, but clearly the board of directors at UA believes in the direction that Tilton is taking the company, so again I'll make the statement: Based on UA's current cash position and it's operating cost in relation to it's revenue stream, the company will most likely be forced into bankruptcy in the next 6-9 months.
2009 projected operating revenue: $15.6 billion
2009 projected operating cost: $16.4 billion
Projected operating profit: -$800 million
United Airlines Shows How Not To Run Your Business - Forbes.com
Originally Posted by
Lambourne
I can not predict whether or not UAL will survive. I do hope that they will and if I was stuck in an ERJ I would certainly be hoping for the growth and survival of any mainline carrier. The one thing we know for sure is that the wages on your end are not raising them on our end.
I'm not sure I understand what the correlation is between my company's wages and your company's financial condition. Actually, we start getting our concessions back this October as part of the kickback negotiated, but again, short of taking a jab at me and everyone in the industry for your inability to retain scope (as a segment of the industry), your comment has nothing to do with the discussion. Career progression for most of us is not contingent on whether or not UA will make it. If (and I hope you all do) UA survives then great, if not sadly enough someone else will fill the voids and there will be jobs available.
Originally Posted by
Lambourne
Also, what proof do you have that the UA/CAL integration will be in any manner like the US/HP merger? At UA and CAL we both fly similar gauge equipment and have somewhat similar seniority percentages in the fleets. In the case of HP and US you had one group with widebody intl and one with narrowbody domestic. You also had one extremely senior group with the average Captain at one group not being able to hold that same seat with the same seniority in the other. That is not the case with UA and CAL. Not saying the merger would be unicorns and lollipops but your argument is pretty baseless when actually looking at the facts.
Clearly you're unfamiliar with ALPA's merger policy, which is fundamentally built on career expectations based on ratios and company viability in relation to projected expansion. Translation: CAL has projected growth, UA is shrinking and comes to the table with a higher margin of debt to asset ratio. Clearly your statement illustrates that you believe that you're coming to the table as an equal, but your company's status at the time of the merger makes that determination, not your personal desires, hopes, or what you think you deserve; hence, the ALPA merger policy.
Originally Posted by
Lambourne
I often see the statement "buy them after they go bust" or "pick up the pieces". If it were only that simple.
Finally, we as line pilots have very little control over what takes place. If their is an integration I look forward to meeting new friends from CAL.
L
So we're clear, I don't think anyone here is planning nor wishing for UA's demise. Your anger and frustration is misplaced, you should be looking at your management and your MEC. Most of us are looking at this whole scenario from a business perspective, and believe me, even from a personal perspective, I am hoping things work out for you guys.
When folks talk about bankruptcy, most of us are talking about chapter 11 - reorganization, not liquidation. At this point in the game, it almost seems like UA's only option, short of securing financing elsewhere, which is unlikely at this point.
Once again, best of luck to you.