I do not know how long it would take to re-negotiate the TA for a "new" one. Honestly- I won't even put out an idea. I would put out that from talking with people who can quote the RLA verbatim and have studied past contract history, things typically get lumped into a couple of items.
For example (hypothetical):
Let's say we DO vote this TA down by a strong majority and the MEC reconvenes and says, "ok, here are the problem areas".
1. No trip/duty or min day (scheduling)
2. 401K match is far below everyone (retirement)
3. payrates are too low (compensation)
4. perdiem too low compared to peers (compensation)
5. Healthcare costs rising (insurance)
6. only 10 days off instead of 11/12.
That's 6 things in this hypothetical. We would prob only get 2 items fixed, so you would "lump". Scheduling would need at least a duty rig and min day (there's 1). 401K, payrates, extra day off, perdiem, and insurance costs= how much does that equal a month?
Well....
401K is off by 3%
extra day off? well that's at least the cost of a min day ($$ terms)
Perdiem- well that's $.10/hr
Insurance- well that's $1/hr more for an average family (just throwing a random number, but not too far off if I did some calculating).
Add it all up and it's about 6% of compensation- so let's put it on the payrate only.
Now you would have a rig, min day, and good pay rates- which is a "bandaid" and still keeps the average down in other areas for other carriers AND our negotiations down the line, but add 5-6% to our pay rates and a basic rig/min day and I guarantee pilots would change the tune. I am not a negotiator and this is a hypothetical. Of course I would LOVE to open up every section that isn't great, but then the company will open up the things that we are already thrilled with (yes, there are some positives).
There will never be a contract that everyone thinks is great- even at the industry leaders (major and regional) pilots complain about areas that lack, but we ARE labor and we really can't become ubber expensive because it ruins the business model. That being said we CAN and SHOULD be on par with our peers in overall compensation, QOL, and safety (scope/insurance/leaves). It is up to management and the labor groups to ensure performance. We will still have issues with vacation slide, min day off, 401 match, no profit sharing, DH pay, etc.
Think big picture. There is a time value to money for everyone- a $2 raise now would need a $4 raise in 6 months to recoup in a year to even, numbers grow as time under the 99 contract continues. That being said waiting 6mo for a contract and getting 5-6% more pay overall, at 5 years (with compounded COLA increases) the overall compensation is a MAJOR difference for a positive and increases the industry for even higher gains in 5-10 years when the next deal is done.
When the TA becomes available, read it all. I will be posting on the company board the specific differences (both positive and negative) for Retirement/insurance and leaves to also show where we compare with the industry. Many pilots here have never even looked at these sections and may not even understand what they are reading- it can be difficult to understand. Facts are very important to use as YOUR starting point when looking at the contract. The message board will have each person with a personal bias- which is fine, but get your own base line.