I believe it is a combination of both issues. I think if you look it will show approx. 40 pilots without positions.

It is my dream that all the fear mongering bites them in the a$$ one day and we end up severely understaffed. All the ingredients are there for it to possibly happen.

This could be expedited by:
1.) No VJM
2.) Bidding/taking ALL Vacation
3.) Fatigue = sick, interpret however you want
4.) No open time p/u
5.) Retirements
6.) 787 magically flying

I realize I'm reiterating the obvious, but you'd be surprised how many people just don't get it.