Originally Posted by
EagleDriver
I agree that AMR is much more concerned about getting approval for the BA/IB deal but I wouldn't put it past our government to demand a quid pro quo.
For example, Parker and Tilton tell key Congressmen and Senators they're going bankrupt and this time, without an available credit market plus the fact that they've hocked everthing already, it'll cause the companies to close their doors, Chapter 7. The boobs in Washington hear the sound of voters in their district losing their jobs and they see they have the power to make demands on AMR in order to grant the BA deal. Congressmen call on Arpey/AMR and say "We've got a deal for you, buy ...LCC/UAL or parts of it and we'll grant you the BA deal this fall." It will ensure everyone suffers a little instead of half the crowd suffering a lot.
I give you credit for looking at all pieces of the puzzle. I think everyone of those executives is factoring in alliances in their decision-making. I would also add that we've already seen what fear of bankruptcy does. I wouldn't put it past pilots and other employees to actively lobby for foreign investment.
Had the European economies (and airlines) stayed disproportionately strong, we might have seen more of this already. I think it's only the fact that credit markets were essentially closed that prevented more European forays into our side while they were still much stronger. With credit markets thawing, and investors willing to take on more risk, who knows what the future holds? I suspect it involves more arrangements, similar to our DAL / AF-KLM JV, with some agreements on division of flying. The focus will be on STAR next, and I suppose CAL/UAL will (e)merge as a strong partner to Lufthansa. AMR will be next to come up with an arrangement that works well within OneWorld. I
never discount AMR. It's not immediately apparent to me how they're going to do well
right now, but it never pays to understimate them.