Originally Posted by dragon

Apologize in advance if some of this is old news. Please feel free to PM me any questions.

Notes from the CVG base visit

Big item first, confirmed no furloughs through 2010. They reiterated what has been put out at other base visits that it would be 24 or more months to recover from a small furlough of 200 folks. We’ll be over staffed but they’re willing to accept that in order for Network to pounce on any opportunities that pop up whether that is the demise of another carrier, piecing out of other carriers assets or a turnaround in the world economy. They don’t see any hiring on the horizon but acknowledge many DAL-N pilots start turning 60 in 2011 and beyond triggering their pensions. They also admit the crystal ball is murky.

SOC still on track for the week of 31 Dec, however expect that to slide a week so it doesn’t interfere with the busy holiday week.


Expect inventory cutover Jan 31 and fleet cutover to start 2 Mar on the DC9 and the rest in April. If it’s not complete by 2 May, this will roll to Oct. Fleet cutover is for AWABS and flight planning.

Crew resources - single system bid in Jan with the SLC 88 base closing, MSP 88 base opening and a SLC 320 base opening. The SLC 320 base will not be all of the MSP 320 flying. Currently SLC is averaging 30 MD90 departures/day; expect that to drop to 2. The DTW 757 international flying will initially be branded as 755 in order to differentiate it from the domestic 75 stuff but will eventually become 7ER. They just won’t all be qualified on the 767 right away and that will also prevent the company from having to “open” a 7ER base in DTW. The quote they kept repeating is “We won’t chase the flying”. Network is wanting more rapid changes (SEA 7ER) but CR&P wants to take a steadier approach.

This year’s revenue was hit by the H1N1, creeping energy and difficult revenue environment, Severe hit in Asia as others have reported. Expect year end liquidity to be slightly less than $5Billion.

Network says we need oil less than $100 per barrel to do well in 2010; we’re going to continue growing ATL which is already at 1000 departures per day and we want to keep a footprint in certain markets but will be cancelling unprofitable markets. And 70% of those are the really small ones. “We need to protect Atlanta”. Could be talking about SWA or Citrus.

In New York we’re moving the 75Es from Transatlantic to transcontinental (LAX and SFO).

No More 2 class RJ deliveries and they’re looking at potential 2 class 70s which would result in seats being removed. They are looking at EVERY opportunity to shrink 50 seat RJ flying.

We’ve seen a 20% European RASM YOY decrease and the CVG to LGW and FRA routes lost money in the peak summer time frame. The JV with KLM/AF will drive the carriers to put the correct metal on the respective routes in order to maximize the shared profits. Overall YOY reductions are flattening out and we’ve seen a “lessening of the badness”. In the Pacific, expect us to reduce to the core while protecting the valuable NRT slots. Latin America is doing very well with the exception of deep South America. Latin America should see the most growth in 2010. The crystal ball is still to murky to determine Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific for 2010. Question was asked about how JFK to NRT was going and the answer was only MSP-NRT was profitable but they see the 777 as the right airplane for the NRT market.

There was a rep from a Marketing arm called Customer Experience. They deal with things like seating, Wifi and Sky Club. They deal with everything except IFS. Looking at adding a new level of service called Sky Priority to treat the HVP (precious metals) better. They make up 5% of our passengers but account for 26% of our revenue.

Q&A at the CVG base meeting of course revolved mostly about the CVG flying. CVG has lost 50% of its business revenue. It won’t get much smaller on the mainline side but there may be more shrinkage from the RJ side. The LGW and FRA may return next summer or earlier if the city subsidizes us like PIT, PHL, CMH and PDX. 757s have been decreasing out of CVG and (probably) won’t be returning.

Interesting item about DTW: They were seeing a decrease in revenue by 20% on Sat so expect them to drop from 7 to 5 banks on those days. Which should result in a slight revenue gain.

LGA expect approval in the Feb/Mar time frame but they’re already adding time. From Crew Resources if they let Carmen do it, the program would have the NYC 88 base at 10000 hours for max efficiency. So expect the lines to go up. LGA will remain a mostly O&D market with some connections. They were even looking at ways to more efficiently move pax (and crew) between JFK and LGA.

JFK terminal is being looked at. Tear down 3 and connect 2 and 4 with a Customs and immigration facility would open up the choke point as well. All admitted the pad operation is bad. Plan could also be to swap terminals with AA in JFK/BOS. The JFK construction project would of course take years.
They’re working on a better commuter policy. Something like a hybrid.
We’re going to go head to head with anyone that challenges us. That includes REP and SWA. We’re not happy that REP is now a competitor and we may upgauge on some of the competing routes. SWA loads out of SLC are in the 60s and they’re pulling back.

Aircraft issues. The DC9-30/40 will all be gone by the end of 2010. The 744 may have reached its limit in which markets we can put it into since there aren’t many that need 400 seats. The 777 was deemed to be the right size and we’re looking for more 777s. From a pilot staffing point of view, the retiring DC9s would be replaced by the new 777s we have scheduled for 2010 and the removal of 10 DL 757s and 7 NW 757s from the desert. We also have some MD-90s coming and apparently the China Eastern Deal may be closer than we think. There was a large disparity between what we were offering and what they wanted and that has now turned around. We have money in next year’s budget for more 90s if the economy dictates and it would take 10-12 months to bring them onboard. Cap and trade may affect what size airplane we use but that is years away. RA wants 2-3 manufactures on campus.

There was a strong (heated is the wrong term) discussion about the beacon as a pay clock. New ACARS is supposed to go to last door closed and brakes released. There was also speculation about how the new Flight and Duty time limits currently being debated in congress will affect both our staffing and hiring. One other item – we’re supposed to be focusing on A-0 not D-0. The pressure on gate agents is overblown. Senior Bubbas pointed out that this message has not made it to the line. The Company would rather we arrive on time.

I was gratified to see both the FO and CA rep there. They asked questions.