Originally Posted by Sink r8

...and most of us fail to consider "parts" because we cringe at the implications for any one pilot group. Since we're stuck without a NSL, and thus married to our individual airlines, our most important wish is for our group to stay intact. We often can't get our minds around the concept that this is a giant monopoly game potentially getting underway. And the traders aren't interested in trading places with each other: they want to trade properties. What's the point of everyone holding incomplete sets, when everyone could be putting up hotels over fewer, neatly organized properties?

When you don't think like a pilot, even a AMR/LCC mrger can in fact make sense, especially when you think about three-way deals that get all the pieces in the right hands. For isntance, plug in Delta into your calculations. LCC just traded with us in a way that helps them in DCA, and makes them small enough in LGA to pass regulatory review in LGA in case of a merger with AMR.

Now look at New York. AMR isn't exactly growing, but CAL/DAL/JBLU are setting up strong positions. DAL has a well-known terminal problem in JFK. Some rumors even exist that we are in discussions for AMR's terminal. Some scoff at this, of course, but the rumor also has AMR getting our new terminal in BOS. That, to me, seems a lot more plausible: everyone sets up more dominant positions in different turfs. AMR strengthens its' hand in BOS, LGA, and PHL. In my mind, the PHL market is begging to get some adult supervision, and SWA won't provide the international lift. I don't see why AMR couldn't serve the JFK TATL traffic with a BA codeshare, and have a decent domestic/int'l hub at PHL, to replace the mess that exists there right now.

My point isn't that I know the answers, but simply that we need to be more original in our thinking. Something has to give in this industry. Judging by the terminal swap at LGA, and by the AAI/CAL swap at EWR and LGA, something significant is happening. Airlines are now deciding to look at ways of setting up dominant positions in certain markets, in return for strengthening a competitor elsewhere.

So I think it's very naive to think Arpey and Parker are simply looking at existing networks, and wondering if they will fit, or if labor will play along: they're going to axe, cut, grind, trade, swap, haggle, deal, or whatever it takes to get the right properties in the right hands. I doubt fleet commonality keeps them up at night, and I doubt even pieces like PHX are too difficult to trade in a three-way deal. Take SWA, for example... maybe they could pull out of CLT and BOS, and reduce a little in PHL, in order to meet the increased PHX schedule when AMR/LCC pulls down their flying, to shift it more towards, you know, CLT, BOS, and PHL...

The good news: it probably will take the same number of pilots. I don't see the system shrinking much further, and you can't defer retirements forever.