Bad times can happen to good companies with great track records. All things change and expedited cargo carriers are not immune. I think there has been an out pouring of doom and gloom about the pax end of this business that a couple of years of good fortune will put to rest. Is it around the corner? Maybe not, but this is a cyclical business and things have (and will) swing around.
As for as the chest thumping from (some) UPS and FDX posters, you'd think the business model (for these companies) were immune to setback. Over night (air) freight is just one energy crisis away from being a truck product; you at UPS should understand that better than anyone.
Don't kid your self that we move an indispensable product. The box doesn't care how its moved, that can't be said for people. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens to kill the golden goose!