State-owned Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, contributes some 40% of the national budget. Problem is, output at its main offshore field is plummeting. Last year, Mexico produced some 2.6 million barrels of oil daily, down 30% from its 2004 peak; now, it's 2.5 million a day, and without major new discoveries, Mexico's reserves will last for just nine more years.
Pemex engineers have long known that production would fall, but politicians have failed to take the decline seriously—until now.