The proven reseves in the world today are estimated to be good for at least another hundred years.
The odd thing is that alternative sources of energy may be used in the future to create hydrocarbon fuels.

Oil demand has dropped quite a bit recently, and new dicoveries keep happening. The low hanging fruit has been picked but there are still many finds to be developed. US production has been limited more by political factors than a lack of oil.

At the heart of Mexico's problem you may find both a bit of political and technical matters having much more effect than a true lack of oil.



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rumBeat: January 31, 2007 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: February 1, 2007

An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Posted by Sam Foucher on January 31, 2007 - 12:30pm
Topic: Supply/Production


Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production (story here). The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online. The Wall Street Journal (thanks to Jerôme) published an article on Cantarell last week:

The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oilfield in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output fell to 1.5 million barrels in December compared to 1.99 million barrels in January, according to figures from the Mexican Energy Ministry.
[Update: PEMEX has just put out a press release this morning (thanks Nate!) saying that its crude oil production rose to 3.153 million barrels per day in January, up 6% from December, as it may have fixed a few of technical problems at Cantarell (source). Still, this last estimate put Mexico right back on the low logistic curve on Figure 5 below, so even with this news the decline is still quite apparent.]
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So the news isn't really new, nor is the poor management of Pemex.