Originally Posted by
rickair7777
In the current regional feed and credit markets, a ch.11 filing could be catastrophic, and lead very rapidly to ch.7.
OJ's only chance would be to re-negotiate one of his feeds in advance (UA or US), downsize the company by 70% to match the new contract, and attract some financing for his rationalized operation..
Since a BK filing would almost certainly allow all major partners to dump mesa immediately, he would lose DL for sure, probably one other, and quite possibly all three. It would be too tempting an opportunity for the majors to dump excess capacity without expensive lawsuits.
I'm guessing he might be able to keep one, because BK might allow him to reduce lease and labor contracts and make a really lowball offer to somebody (MAG pilots, say buh-bye to your recent contract "gains")
I think it will all hinge on the 900's...they are the only thing of value he controls, and they might serve as the basis for a new ultra-cheap, large RJ contract (I'm sure UA-ALPA will roll over on the scope if offered some enticement). But it's a dangerous game...since 900's have street value, if he cuts too close to the bone on those leases the lien-holders might just take their toys and go home.
OK. I'll bite.
If you were betting on that statement, you would certainly lose.
The pilots at UA lost control of the 50/70 pax jets during the bankruptcy. That gun is no longer pointed at our head. The pilot group is not in total agreement about all of the issues, and our unity is not where it should be at this stage of the game. However, the one thing that an overwhelming majority of UA pilots do agree on is scope and the 90 pax small jet flying. (I'll leave room for the 777 and 400 captains who are unaware of the issues.)
The NC has been given direction from the MEC. 90 seat jets will not be in any agreement unless they are mainline aircraft.
If you want to play the never-say-never game, I would agree that every pilot has their price. In this case, the "enticement" would be a significant price that the company would never be willing to pay, particularly since we all know that allowing UAX to fly anything larger than 70 pax means a significant reduction if not the complete loss of our airbus fleet. The only scenario that I see that would include UAX flying 90 pax is a second bankruptcy. All bets are off then.
This looks more like flame-bait, than your usual level-headed industry observations.
Hog