“This is the end of the 20th Century of Oil; we are entering the 21st Century of Electricity,”
...
“Obama’s environmental agenda, the bankruptcy of the US auto industry, the war in Iraq, and global oil supply challenges have dovetailed to spell the end of the oil era."
...
Deutsche argues that “oil will never run out, rather we will become more efficient,” and predicts that hybrid and electric cars will have a far greater positive impact on oil efficiency than the market currently expects.
...
“The impact will be concentrated in US gasoline, the largest single element of global oil demand (12%), and will be dramatic enough in its own right to cause the peak of global oil demand around 2016.
...
Deutsche also predicts that oil demand will be undermined by a switch to natural gas supplies.
...
Deutsche also expects increasingly chronic under-investment in new oil supply capacity and forecasts that the peak for global oil production could arrive as early as... within the next six years. We see market maximum capacity at 90mb/d in 2016 – just 5%
above 2009.”
...
“US demand is the key,” says Mr Sankey: ” It is the last market-priced, oil inefficient, major oil consumer.”
Deutsche predicts that oil prices could finally peak at $175/bbl in 2016 but will be
under fundamental long-term downward pressure.
...(leading to) $70/bbl oil in 2030 in a market that has shrunk to around 79mb/d – 8% lower than its current level, and 40% below consensus.”
Beyond the the 2016 peak, Deutsche expects oil prices to fall and warns that the value of undeveloped resources such such as Canadian heavy oil sands, oil shales, and Brazilian pre-salt and other ultra-deepwater plays could be far lower than the market currently expects..