Originally Posted by
shackone
I don't know how much you know about the furloughed pilot situation at AA...but, from what you just said, I suspect little. I retired from that carrier and have many friends on that furlough list.
How about you?
At the announced rate of return, it will take years before everyone gets back.
Shackone, what do you see driving AMR's recall rate?
1) Retirements
2) Increased block hours
3) Contractual changes where pilots on property become more productive (ie QOL decreases to get a few more hrs/mo out of every pilot on property)
4) A change to age 65 for part 121 pilots
The first two will generate recalls; the last two delay recalls.
Since #2, 3 & 4 have not occured, I'm looking at #1. AMR probably has ~30 pilots/mo retiring. 10/mo doesn't keep up with attrition; this tells me that AMR is planning on #3 and/or 4 happening. If #4 doesn't happen (right now I see it as a crapshoot; could go either way), I'd be willing to bet that management is going to push for #3.
Should the pilots on property opt to take a pass on #3, recalls will accelerate (assuming block hours remain constant).
United forecasted a recall of 200+ pilots in 2006; it looks like we'll close out the year a bit short of 400 recalls. We burned through >800 numbers through November; I wouldn't be surprised if we burn through 1000 numbers to close out 2006.
At 10/mo, AMR's current forecast is for 120/yr. In order to generate that number of recalls, don't be surprised to see AMR burn through 400+ numbers. But I expect AMR to recall closer to 300 (to keep up with retirements) in 2007 and go through 1/4-1/3 of the furlough list. The deeper that AMR gets into the furlough list, the less furloughees will return. I expect AMR to recall the most junior furloughee (as long as status quo is maintained) no later than mid-2009.
The problem with any predictions is that there are a LOT of moving parts. And of course, hindsight is 20/10. So consider my ramblings above to merely be a WAG. What's your WAG on AMR's recalls?