Trying to sum up.... Things will have to actually get bad (as perceived by the majority of SkW pilots) BEFORE a union would be successful.

Promises of how rosey it would be aren't going to work. People know better. And a relative few think it's a bad place to work. When ALPA carrier Mesa had a 50% turn over in pilots a few years ago, those that weren't going to a major were coming to SkW. By the droves. I doubt even a majority of those former Mesa pilots voted for ALPA.

Senior captains are very happy. Paid relatively well, great schedule, in a secure company. They've never been in ANY union, and they're not changing what works for them. They're not voting in any union.

The most junior FO's still have koolaid stains on their lips, except for the ones on reserve, and will be on reserve for a long time. They might vote a union, but guess what. Not a single thing will change for them. They'll still be on reserve, commuting to some garden spot like FAT.

Probably the single biggest crapped on group are the most junior captains. That's were your support for a union lies. And they are grossly outnumbered.