Originally Posted by
CaptainTeezy
Hey guys I was just wondering in general what you all think about these predictions and if they are likely down the road.
1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.
2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.
3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.
I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.
It's difficult to predict what will happen in the Part 121 flying world in the next year or two, let alone in 10 years because there are too many variables that changes unpredictably.
However, I do not see your number (1) scenario happening. I think the number of regionals will go down in numbers but I do not see regionals going back to flying all turboprops. Most major airlines that outsources its domestic flying is reducing the number of turboprops flying at regionals. People living in small towns that are currently being served by RJs and turboprops like Saabs will have to drive to bigger cities to catch their flights.
Even with large retirements predicted starting 2012, it is more likely majors will manage with less pilots. DAL is saying even with the new duty and rest requirement that is being discussed, it will be a washout or at best DAL may need 100 more pilots.
I think a more likely scenario is that majors will concentrate on international flying and most domestic flying will be delegated to regionals. For some it would done by wholly owned regionals. For others, like UAL, it will be done by any contract regionals UAL chooses. As for international flying, it looks like it will be taken over by joint alliance concepts and eventually some foreign carriers may wind up merging with US carriers and with each other. I think it's already in the works. BA will be merging with the Spanish carrier, and DAL may wind up sharing most international flying along with its profits and expenses with KLM and Air France, making them virtually indistinguishable in their operations.
Is it worth staying in this business? Like others have pointed out, it depends on whether flying is your passion or not. I have always loved flying so I will stay put either 121 or 135 flying. But it also means I am willing to take the risk when there are opportunities for me to move forward. For this reason, I cannot fault SkyHigh for leaving Horizon for a start up LCC. I probably would have done the same thing. After all why stay at Horizon for 10 years when you have a chance to fly B757s for a higher pay. Who can gurantee anything in this business.
The difference between SkyHigh and I, though, is I would not have given up trying to get another flying job, even if it means working in an office for several years. I would have kept on trying. But then again, I am not married with kids like SkyHigh. Given his circumstances, who can blame him for dropping out? I do value SkyHigh's input because he presents the other side of the coin and what can happen to you if run out of luck in this extremely unstable aviation business. I know plenty of examples where superbly talented pilots wind up being unemployed.