My thoughts on this one are that it could be 50/50 depending on how you look at it but here were Bills thoughts.

If they punted the Colts would have had the ball at a position greater than their own 20 yard line with 2 minutes left. The colts would have been HOT after running 11 unanswered points and would have had two timeouts to get the job done. Peyton as we know is a VERY strong 2 minute drill QB and our D was gassed and clearly not getting the job done.

By getting the first down the two minute warning was out of the equation. We then had 4 plays and the Colts would have had 2 timeouts. The timeouts would have been burned after the first two plays since the pats would have run. Even if the Pats would not have gotten the first down the clock would have run down to around 50 seconds or a little less. If they had another first down they would have run the clock out.

NOW...if they did not get a first down they would have punted putting the ball back into at least their 10 yard line (who knows about the run back) leaving the colts with just under 50 seconds to go approx 70-90 yards with no timeouts.

It may not have seemed like their best chance to win but I can see where they were coming from.