Originally Posted by
slowplay
Easy big fella...
First, we weren't staffing neutral last summer. We were way overmanned, and that overmanning wasn't in the correct categories. That is in the process of being corrected.
As I hinted at last night we are adding to SLC w/o taking from MSP. That is adding positions, but where will we be subtracting positions? I wonder where they will not backkfill. Domestic is king, and in a year we will need wide body drivers, but I agree that the big jets are overstaffed. 320 Instructors are going to be very busy.
Second, where are the 7% increase numbers coming from? If they came from Steve Dickson's lounge chat, the words are important. Was it an increase over this summer's (2009) pilot block hours, or over the announced reduced 2010 planned block hours? The difference is substantial.
YOY was what was stated, not over original planned. If I recall the 2009 and 2010 summer numbers we very close either way. I will need to dig out that data though
Third, as you've noted previously, the plans change weekly based on the most recent economic data. There will have to be solid indications that the improved yields airlines are seeing in their near term bookings are going to stick before hiring committments are made. Just 2 months ago many here were talking about September furloughs....
I agree, and this is a 180 from where we were going. There is a marked change in the way our leaders are thinking. I have not been able to figure out why, as I personally do not think that they economy is out of the woods yet. I guess that those who have money will travel and those who don't will not.
Don't drink the koolaid too much, in either direction. There are 11 747-200 that will be parked which were flying last summer. We're parking over 30 DC-9 30/40 by the end of next year, and only have 11 aircraft deliveries over that time, the vast majority backloaded. We do have some capacity in the desert that can be pulled out, but that only requires a 60 day lead time to get the heavy checks done.
I hate Koolaid! Really. Just reporting the points with a few omissions on my part
I hope we hire. I expect if there aren't changes to this week's current plan we will need to. Unless there are substantial economic changes that carry through to the fall/winter 2010 months I can't see a need for truly substantial hiring.
We are getting 4% of our pay and 1% extra DC back in 6 weeks, though.
As stated in my first post, I agree that we are not looking at crazy hiring. It will be controlled and probably half of the DAL-S numbers from the 07-08 time frame. It could be more but I do not see it unless we PERP guys next fall, get slapped with rest rules we do not see coming, or guys just hang it up at 63 like many have said they would do. Going forward I do beleive that we will need a steady stream of pilots. Noting like the hiring og 1998-2001 or 1987-1990 but enough to keep the school house full. Looking five years out we will need to have a surplus so that we can grow the airline and account for age related attrition.