Originally Posted by VegasBoy

A buddy of mine is a buy side equity analyst for a company that is fairly heavily into UPS as a part of their transportation portfolio. This is their UPS -specific analyst' synopsis of our 3q results:

"UPS reported Q3 EPS of $0.55 vs. consensus of $0.52. Revenue was
in-line, falling 15% and EBIT was slightly higher than consensus,
falling 43%. UPS continues to lose share in package, an oligopoly
business in which its holds about 70% of industry EBIT in the US, as
average daily parcel (ground) volumes were down 3.9% YoY vs. FedEx's
10.1% growth in the August quarter. This is UPS' most profitable
business line and heightens in my mind the reasons why it should
acquire European parcel business TNT (as outlined in the BIT team's
M&A project). FedEx won't stop growing this business unless the
Teamsters-sponsored litigation changes the game for this unit and even
if that happened, I believe FedEx could bring this model in from a
contractor-driven model to an employee-driven model. UPS is expecting
Q4 EPS of $0.58 to $0.65 vs. consensus of $0.63, so the market was
nonplussed with the near-term outlook, but I believe earnings power is
easily above $4.00 per share over an intermediate time horizon and
that long-term expectations in the stock are too low. UPS' near-term
outlook dovetails into the longer-term fundamentals I have estimated
in the range of scenarios that form my CTV of $74.25, up 31%. I think
how quickly the stock can achieve this is subject to the near-term
trajectory of earnings, which I believe will turn positive by Q1 2010.
I am maintaining my $2.21 and $3.07 EPS estimates (26x and 18x) vs.
consensus of $2.14 and $2.63 (26x and 22x) with FCF yields of 8.9% and
5.4% on FCF per share of $5.05 and $3.08 with a 3.2% dividend yield."


Side note to that...... I think any idea of a furlough is a bluff. I call that bluff. I've bled my turnip dry on the MOU. And being part of the bottom 300 I say; F U. Let me know when to go on furlough and, I'll see you in a couple of years.........quit monkeying around the issue. We're overstaffed. Furlough. Give me a date and kiss my arse.

Marc