Originally Posted by
SkyHigh
More jetliners have been crashed at the complacent hands of experience then from new pilots.
A pilot will never be faulted for following procedures. In place of experience the ability to rote memorize procedures and to stick to the prescribed path will keep a pilot out of trouble. They might still crash the plane one day but they will pass every check ride and proficiency check. Overall however the inexperienced automaton will have a better safety record then the complacent maverick.
Pilots get into trouble when they leave the path. I am not completely briefed on the accident particulars of Colgan 3407 and US Airways 1549 but it seems to me that other factors were involved besides inexperience. I do not think that an accident has ever been blamed on inexperienced pilots, however there have been plenty blamed on over confident, arrogant and complacent experienced pilots.
Skyhigh
If you look at old history (> 10-20 years) there are numerous examples of human-factor accidents. But we have made great strides in this area.
We have not seen a large uptick in accidents caused by substandard pilots yet because (as airline managers well know) that is harvest that you reap down the road. The puppy mill crop of the 2004-2008 has mostly not upgraded yet.
Unfortunately I don't think we have seen the last of Colgan...I'm surprised that it took as long as it did. Congress will probably not take retroactive action to remove pilots already in place.
Airline CEO's are not worried, they expect to have exercised their leveraged options, filed BK, pulled the golden parachute, and ridden off into the sunset long before this bird comes home to roost. Cash on the barrel NOW, damn the future consequences.