Agreed, for the reasons you stated.

One unknown is that I saw an article stating that the Japanese eventually want to have international ops out of HND during the daytime, i.e. after the agreement is passed they will (magically) open it up.

And, surprise, surprise, the Japanese carrieres have all the slots they need at HND. Gone is the seventh daily to Osaka (I'm making up an example), in comes a round-trip to ORD. Gone is the third daily to Okinawa. In comes LAX. Etc.