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Old 01-08-2010 | 04:01 PM
  #24070  
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acl65pilot
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From: A-320A
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Originally Posted by bigdaddie
Let me start this post by stating to Slow that this is my opinion only. In my In-Command class (Feb 09, I think) Steve Gorman stated that the company was in no way interested in AS because we get all the benefit of the feed with zero capital investment. Besides SEA, what exactly is AS feeding, LAX? I don't think so because we don't go anywhere from LAX other than the few cities that NW brought to the alter. The capital investment to feed the West ourselves would be minimal at worst. Here's the shocker for all you newbies: Delta isn't interested in the west coast.

West coast flying has low yields and the hubs that provide service anywhere are a long ways away (DTW, MSP, ATL, SLC - so-so). If Delta gets say a 2% ROI from the west but 4%+ from cities east of the Mississippi, then guess where the investment goes? It is only when the revenue from these other cities are affected enough from our pathetic west coast presence that the west will grow. The time may be coming but I don't think we are there yet. If JAL falls through and AA gets AS, I think DALs reaction will be to bump up service E-W and not west N-S. A short term fix for a long term problem.

Folks, I more than anyone would love to see the west grow by any mechanism, internal growth or merger, but I don't see it happening until we are done conquering the world OR a major west coast carrier fails. I don't see the latter happening any time soon, as well as there are many start-ups and/or regionals that would jump in to pick up the traffic like Skywest and Allegiant. Until things change, Delta will continue to be the worlds largest SE regional airline.

I agree with what you have stated, but and there is a but, we would be forced to either buy AS or buy jets to replace that feed to our large international jets with AMR or LUV buys AS and eats our Code Share poison pill to blow a hole in our network. This would be a defensive move only. Probably cheaper than buying the jets, but in the end the market is going to get more diluted with competition against us or us competing against them.

JAL one way or the other forces everyone to show their hands.